Pick a free-shipping threshold with the calculator

• A threshold costs you the shipping fee on every order that reaches it. It pays only if it brings enough extra orders, or big enough baskets, to cover that.
• The calculator tells you how many extra orders you need to break even, before anyone guesses at what the threshold will do.
• Set the threshold a little above your typical order, so some shoppers add an item to reach it, but not so high that nobody tries.
• Decide it before 16 November and set it up as a Shopify discount with start and end dates.
• A progress bar must tell the truth. If the cart says "$12 away from free shipping", checkout must give free shipping at that point.

Baymard Institute's checkout research lists "extra costs too high (shipping, tax, fees)" as the most common reason shoppers abandon a purchase, at 40% of shoppers who abandoned and weren't just browsing (page updated 22 September 2025). That is a reason to show shipping costs early and clearly. It is not proof that free shipping will pay for itself in your store. Whether it does depends on your margin and your shipping costs, which is what the calculator works out.

Open the free-shipping threshold calculator. It asks for these fields, in this order.

1. 1.Average order value. Merchandise only, before shipping. Take it from Shopify Analytics for a normal month, not last year's sale week.
2. 2.Gross margin. On merchandise, after product cost. If you don't know it exactly, use a conservative figure.
3. 3.Shipping cost per order. What you pay the carrier and for packing, on average.
4. 4.Shipping you charge. What shoppers pay below the threshold.
5. 5.Today's threshold (optional). Leave it empty if every order pays for shipping today.
6. 6.Orders at or above it. Only if you have a threshold today: the share of orders that already ship free.
7. 7.New threshold. The order value from which shipping will be free.
8. 8.Orders that would ship free. Today's orders at or above the new threshold, plus baskets you expect to grow into it. Shopify's order report, sorted by order total, tells you the first part.
9. 9.Expected change in orders and Expected change in order value. Leave both at 0 the first time.

With the two expected changes at 0, the calculator shows what the threshold costs before you assume anything about its effect. The headline number is Change in orders needed to break even: how many more orders you need from the same visitors to keep profit per visitor where it is today. It also shows Contribution per order (what one order earns after product and shipping costs) and Or: change in order value needed.

The calculator works out profit per visitor as conversion rate times contribution per order, so your conversion rate cancels out of every ratio and it doesn't ask for it. The method is the break-even sales change from pricing analysis (Nagle and Müller), applied to a shipping offer instead of a price.

The example shows the useful question. Not "will free shipping help?" but "do I believe it will bring 6.4% more orders, or baskets 5.6% bigger?" If that sounds easy for your store, the threshold is likely to pay. If it sounds like a stretch, choose a higher threshold or keep charging for shipping and make the cost clear early.

Run the calculator two or three times:

• Just above your average order (in the example, $55 or $60). More shoppers reach it, so it costs more, but it's also the threshold most likely to grow baskets.
• Well above it ($75 in the example). Few orders qualify, so it costs little, but few shoppers will add $27 of products to reach it.
• At a price point of a popular add-on. If a $12 accessory sells well, a threshold around your average order plus $12 gives shoppers an obvious way to reach it.

Pick the threshold with a break-even you believe, not the one with the best expected profit. The expected changes are your guesses; the break-even is arithmetic.

1. 1.Create a free-shipping discount in Shopify (Discounts, Create discount, Free shipping) with a minimum purchase amount equal to your threshold.
2. 2.Set active dates: a start date for your sale and an end date. A discount without an end date doesn't expire, and a forgotten free-shipping offer is a slow leak in January.
3. 3.Check how it combines with your other sale discounts. Shopify discounts only combine when you set them to, by class (product, order, shipping). If your Black Friday code is an order discount, decide whether it should combine with free shipping, and test both together.
4. 4.Know which price counts toward the threshold. Shopify's help center says products count toward a free-shipping minimum "at their discounted price" when the other discount can be combined with free shipping. So a $65 cart with 20% off counts as $52 and misses a $60 threshold. Say so on your banner ("$60 after discounts"), or set the threshold with that in mind. A Benchmyrk shipping test counts the other way: its minimum is the cart before discounts, so the same $65 cart reaches a $60 minimum.
5. 5.Place two test orders: one just above the threshold, one just below. Refund them.

A cart message like "You're $8 away from free shipping" can help shoppers reach the threshold. It must agree with checkout to the cent:

• Use the same threshold as the discount, in the same currency.
• Count the cart the way the offer does: after discounts for a Shopify free-shipping discount that combines with your sale discounts, before discounts for a Benchmyrk shipping test.
• Remove the bar when the discount ends.
• Never show a bar for a threshold shoppers can't reach, for example on products excluded from the offer.

A bar that promises free shipping and a checkout that charges for it is worse than no bar. It turns a shipping cost into a broken promise at the last step.

Only if you have the traffic, and start by 25 October. A threshold test should be judged on profit per visitor, and revenue and profit goals need more visitors than a conversion-rate test because order values vary a lot. Our free-shipping threshold test guide shows test lengths for three traffic levels. For most small stores, the calculator's break-even plus a clear decision is the better use of October.

• Using sale-week order values. Your average order on Black Friday last year includes a discount and a different mix of shoppers. Use a normal month.
• Forgetting packaging and returns shipping in your shipping cost.
• Changing the threshold during the sale. Shoppers who saw $60 on Friday and $75 on Monday will ask why.
• Letting free shipping stack with a deep order discount by accident. Check the combination settings and place a test order.

• [ ] Average order value, margin, shipping cost and fee from a normal month
• [ ] Calculator run for two or three thresholds, break-even written down
• [ ] Threshold chosen by 23 October
• [ ] Free-shipping discount created with start and end dates
• [ ] Combination with sale discounts checked with a test order
• [ ] Progress bar (if any) checked against checkout above and below the threshold

Running thresholds for several client stores? The agency track on the BFCM hub covers shipping-threshold tests across client stores.